TAOCP 7.2.2.2 Exercise 317
Let $G$ be the dependency graph from (133), with vertices corresponding to the events $A_1,\ldots,A_m$.
Section 7.2.2.2: Satisfiability
Exercise 317. ▶ [M26] Let $\alpha(G) = \Pr(\bar{A}_1 \cap \cdots \cap \bar{A}_m)$ under the assumptions of (133), when $p_i = p = (d-1)^{d-1}/d^d$ for $1 \le i \le m$ and every vertex of $G$ has degree at most $d > 1$. Prove, by induction on $m$, that $\alpha(G) > 0$ and that $\alpha(G) \ge \frac{d-1}{d} \alpha(G \setminus v)$ when $v$ has degree $< d$.
Verified: yes
Solve time: 9m05s
Setup
Let $G$ be the dependency graph from (133), with vertices corresponding to the events $A_1,\ldots,A_m$. Assume that
$$ p_i=p=\frac{(d-1)^{d-1}}{d^d} $$
for all $i$, and that every vertex of $G$ has degree at most $d$, where $d>1$. Define
$$ \alpha(G)=\Pr(\bar A_1\cap\cdots\cap\bar A_m). $$
The induction will prove the following statement for every such graph with fewer than $m$ vertices:
$$ \alpha(G)>0, $$
and if $v$ has degree less than $d$, then
$$ \alpha(G)\geq\frac{d-1}{d}\alpha(G\setminus v). $$
A consequence needed during the induction is the following estimate. If a graph $H$ has maximum degree at most $d-1$, then
$$ \alpha(H)\geq\left(\frac{d-1}{d}\right)^{|H|}. $$
This follows from the deletion inequality, because every vertex of $H$ has degree less than $d$.
Solution
The proof is by induction on the number $m$ of vertices.
For $m=0$, there are no events, and therefore
$$ \alpha(G)=1>0. $$
The deletion inequality has no instance to check.
Assume the result holds for all graphs with fewer than $m$ vertices, and let $G$ have $m$ vertices. Let $v$ be a vertex of $G$, and define
$$ B=\bigcap_{u\neq v}\bar A_u . $$
Then
$$ \alpha(G)=\Pr(B)\Pr(\bar A_v\mid B), $$
and
$$ \Pr(B)=\alpha(G\setminus v). $$
Let $N(v)$ be the set of neighbors of $v$. The dependency condition in (133) says that $A_v$ is independent of the collection of events indexed by vertices outside $N(v)\cup{v}$. Hence
$$ \Pr(A_v\mid B)
\Pr\left(A_v\mid\bigcap_{u\in N(v)}\bar A_u\right). $$
The numerator of the conditional probability satisfies
$$ \Pr\left(A_v\cap\bigcap_{u\in N(v)}\bar A_u\right)\leq p, $$
so
$$ \Pr(A_v\mid B) \leq \frac{p} {\Pr\left(\bigcap_{u\in N(v)}\bar A_u\right)}. $$
Let $H$ be the subgraph induced by $N(v)$. Every vertex of $H$ has degree at most $d-1$, because each vertex in $N(v)$ is adjacent to $v$ in $G$. Therefore the auxiliary estimate gives
$$ \alpha(H)
\Pr\left(\bigcap_{u\in N(v)}\bar A_u\right) \geq \left(\frac{d-1}{d}\right)^{|N(v)|}. $$
Suppose first that $\deg(v)<d$. Then
$$ |N(v)|\leq d-1, $$
and because $(d-1)/d<1$,
$$ \Pr\left(\bigcap_{u\in N(v)}\bar A_u\right) \geq \left(\frac{d-1}{d}\right)^{d-1}. $$
Consequently,
$$ \Pr(A_v\mid B) \leq \frac{\frac{(d-1)^{d-1}}{d^d}} {\left(\frac{d-1}{d}\right)^{d-1}}. $$
The denominator equals
$$ \frac{(d-1)^{d-1}}{d^{d-1}}, $$
so
$$ \Pr(A_v\mid B)\leq\frac1d. $$
Hence
$$ \Pr(\bar A_v\mid B)\geq1-\frac1d=\frac{d-1}{d}. $$
Therefore,
$$ \alpha(G)
\alpha(G\setminus v)\Pr(\bar A_v\mid B) \geq \frac{d-1}{d}\alpha(G\setminus v), $$
which proves the required deletion inequality.
It remains to prove $\alpha(G)>0$. If $G$ has a vertex $v$ with degree less than $d$, the deletion inequality and the induction hypothesis give
$$ \alpha(G)\geq \frac{d-1}{d}\alpha(G\setminus v)>0. $$
Now consider the remaining case. Every vertex of $G$ has degree exactly $d$. Choose any vertex $v$. The graph $G\setminus v$ has fewer than $m$ vertices, so by the induction hypothesis,
$$ \alpha(G\setminus v)>0. $$
It remains to prove that
$$ \Pr(\bar A_v\mid B)>0. $$
The neighborhood $N(v)$ has exactly $d$ vertices and its induced graph has maximum degree at most $d-1$. Thus
$$ \Pr\left(\bigcap_{u\in N(v)}\bar A_u\right) \geq \left(\frac{d-1}{d}\right)^d. $$
If $d>2$, then
$$ \Pr(A_v\mid B) \leq \frac{\frac{(d-1)^{d-1}}{d^d}} {\left(\frac{d-1}{d}\right)^d}
\frac1{d-1} <1. $$
Therefore
$$ \Pr(\bar A_v\mid B)>0, $$
and hence
$$ \alpha(G)>0. $$
It remains to handle $d=2$. In this case
$$ p=\frac14. $$
The vertex $v$ has exactly two neighbors, so the graph induced by $N(v)$ has two vertices and maximum degree at most $1$. Each vertex of this induced graph has degree less than $d=2$, so the deletion inequality already proved for smaller graphs applies. For a single vertex $w$,
$$ \alpha({w})=\Pr(\bar A_w)=1-p=\frac34. $$
Deleting one vertex from the two-vertex graph gives
$$ \alpha(H)\geq\frac12\cdot\frac34=\frac38. $$
Therefore,
$$ \Pr\left(\bigcap_{u\in N(v)}\bar A_u\right)\geq\frac38>\frac14=p. $$
Using the conditional probability estimate,
$$ \Pr(A_v\mid B) \leq \frac{p} {\Pr\left(\bigcap_{u\in N(v)}\bar A_u\right)} < 1. $$
Thus
$$ \Pr(\bar A_v\mid B)>0, $$
and again
$$ \alpha(G)=\alpha(G\setminus v)\Pr(\bar A_v\mid B)>0. $$
The induction establishes both required statements for every graph with maximum degree at most $d$.
This completes the proof.
∎