TAOCP 7.2.2.2 Exercise 202
\textbf{Solution.
Section 7.2.2.2: Satisfiability
Exercise 202. [HM21] This exercise amplifies the text's proof of Theorem C when $c > 1$.
a) Explain the right-hand side of Eq. (93).
b) Why does (97) follow from (95), (96), and the stated choices of $t$ and $m$?
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$$ \textbf{Solution.} $$
The proof of Theorem C uses the random variable $X$, the number of $t$-snakes contained in the random formula. The second moment argument requires estimating
$$ \frac{\mathbf E X^2}{(\mathbf E X)^2}. $$
The equations in the text arise from counting pairs of $t$-snakes according to the number of clauses they have in common.
(a)
Equation (93) gives the probability $f(r)$ that $r$ specified clauses occur in the random formula. The right-hand side is
$$ f(r)= \left(\frac{m}{2n(n-1)}\right)^r \left(1+O\left(\frac{r^2}{n}\right) +O\left(\frac{r^m}{m!n^2}\right)\right). $$
The first factor is the main term. There are
$$ 2n(n-1) $$
possible clauses of length $2$, and the random formula consists of $m$ independently chosen clauses. Thus a particular clause is present with probability
$$ \frac{m}{2n(n-1)}. $$
If the $r$ specified clauses are distinct, the probability that all of them occur is approximately the $r$-th power of this probability, giving
$$ \left(\frac{m}{2n(n-1)}\right)^r . $$
The two error terms measure the effect of the fact that the $m$ clauses are sampled without replacement and that the approximation by independent choices is not exact. The term
$$ O\left(\frac{r^2}{n}\right) $$
comes from the interaction among the $r$ specified clauses, while
$$ O\left(\frac{r^m}{m!n^2}\right) $$
accounts for the possibility that the number of clauses is large enough for higher-order corrections in the sampling process to matter.
For the later application $r\leq 4t$ and $t=o(n^{1/2})$, these error terms are small, so the displayed expression gives the needed asymptotic estimate for $f(r)$.
(b)
From (95),
$$ \frac{\mathbf E X^2}{(\mathbf E X)^2}
\sum_{r=0}^{2t} p_r \frac{f(4t-r)}{f(2t)^2}. $$
Using (93), with $r\leq 2t$, the quotient of the $f$-terms is
$$ \frac{f(4t-r)}{f(2t)^2}
\left(\frac{2n(n-1)}{m}\right)^r \left(1+O\left(\frac{t^2}{n}\right)\right). $$
Hence (95) becomes
$$ \frac{\mathbf E X^2}{(\mathbf E X)^2}
\left(1+O\left(\frac{t^2}{n}\right)\right) \sum_{r=0}^{2t} p_r \left(\frac{2n(n-1)}{m}\right)^r . $$
Now choose
$$ t=\lfloor n^{1/5}\rfloor, \qquad m=\lfloor n+n^{5/6}\rfloor . $$
The factor appearing in the last sum satisfies
$$ \frac{2n(n-1)}{m}
2n\frac{n-1}{n+n^{5/6}}, $$
and therefore
$$ \left(\frac{2n(n-1)}{m}\right)^r
(2n)^r \left(\frac{n-1}{n+n^{5/6}}\right)^r . $$
The second factor gives an exponential decay. Indeed,
$$ \frac{n-1}{n+n^{5/6}}
1-\Theta(n^{-1/6}), $$
so
$$ \left(\frac{n-1}{n+n^{5/6}}\right)^r
O(e^{-r n^{-1/6}}). $$
Therefore
$$ p_r \left(\frac{2n(n-1)}{m}\right)^r
(2n)^r p_r,O(e^{-r n^{-1/6}}). $$
We now apply (96).
For $1\leq r<t$, equation (96) gives
$$ (2n)^r p_r=O(t^4/n). $$
Consequently the total contribution from these terms is
$$ O\left(\frac{t^4}{n} \sum_{r=1}^{t}e^{-r n^{-1/6}}\right). $$
The geometric sum is
$$ O(n^{1/6}), $$
so this part is
$$ O\left(\frac{t^4}{n}n^{1/6}\right). $$
Since $t=n^{1/5}+O(1)$,
$$ \frac{t^4}{n}n^{1/6}
n^{4/5-1+1/6}
n^{-1/30}. $$
For $t\leq r<2t$, (96) gives
$$ (2n)^r p_r=O(t), $$
and hence the contribution is bounded by
$$ O\left( t\sum_{r=t}^{2t}e^{-r n^{-1/6}} \right). $$
Because
$$ t n^{-1/6}=n^{1/5-1/6}=n^{1/30}, $$
this is exponentially small:
$$ O\left(t e^{-\Theta(n^{1/30})}\right). $$
Finally, for $r=2t$, equation (96) gives
$$ (2n)^{2t}p_{2t}=O(n), $$
and its contribution is
$$ O\left(n e^{-2t n^{-1/6}}\right)
O\left(n e^{-\Theta(n^{1/30})}\right), $$
which is again negligible.
The error factor from (93) is
$$ O\left(\frac{t^2}{n}\right)
O(n^{2/5-1})
O(n^{-3/5}), $$
which is smaller than $O(n^{-1/30})$. Hence
$$ \frac{\mathbf E X^2}{(\mathbf E X)^2}
1+O(n^{-1/30}). $$
By the second moment principle,
$$ \Pr(X>0) \geq \frac{(\mathbf E X)^2}{\mathbf E X^2}
1-O(n^{-1/30}). $$
Thus the probability that the random formula contains a $t$-snake is
$$ 1-O(n^{-1/30}), $$
and therefore the satisfiability probability satisfies
$$ S_2!\left(\lfloor n+n^{5/6}\rfloor,n\right)
O(n^{-1/30}), $$
which is exactly equation (97).