TAOCP 7.1.3 Exercise 60
Let $K$ be the number of cycles in the graph $G = M_1 \cup M_2$, where $M_1$ is a fixed perfect matching on $\{0,1,\dots,2n-1\}$ and $M_2$ is a uniformly random perfect matching.
Section 7.1.3: Bitwise Tricks and Techniques
Exercise 60. [HM28] Given a random permutation of ${0, 1, \ldots, 2n-1}$, let $p_{nk}$ be the probability that there are $2^k$ ways to set the crossbars in the first and last columns of the permutation network $P(2n)$ when realizing this permutation. In other words, $p_{nk}$ is the probability that the associated graph has $k$ cycles (see (75)). What is the generating function $\sum_{k \ge 0} p_{nk} z^k$? What are the mean and variance of $2^k$?
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Let $K$ be the number of cycles in the graph $G = M_1 \cup M_2$, where $M_1$ is a fixed perfect matching on ${0,1,\dots,2n-1}$ and $M_2$ is a uniformly random perfect matching.
We correct the argument from the start by identifying the exact induced probability law on cycle structures.
1. From two matchings to a permutation
View each perfect matching as a fixed-point-free involution on $V={0,1,\dots,2n-1}$. Let $M_1$ be fixed and $M_2$ random.
Define the permutation
$$ \pi = M_2 \circ M_1. $$
Each vertex has one $M_1$-edge and one $M_2$-edge, so alternating traversal in $G$ follows the orbit structure of $\pi$. Each cycle of $G$ corresponds exactly to one cycle of $\pi$. Hence
$$ K = c(\pi), $$
the number of cycles of $\pi$.
2. Exact distribution of $\pi$
A perfect matching $M_2$ can be recovered from $\pi$ and $M_1$, but the map is not uniform over permutations. The correct counting is:
For a permutation $\pi$ with $k$ cycles,
$$ #{M_2 : M_2 \circ M_1 = \pi} = 2^k. $$
Thus
$$ \mathbb{P}(\pi) \propto 2^{c(\pi)}. $$
This is the Ewens sampling formula on $S_n$ with parameter $\theta=2$, after reducing the block structure induced by $M_1$.
Therefore the induced distribution of $\pi$ on $S_n$ is
$$ \mathbb{P}(\pi) = \frac{2^{c(\pi)}}{2(3)\cdots(n+1)}. $$
The normalization follows from the identity
$$ \sum_{\pi \in S_n} 2^{c(\pi)} = 2(3)\cdots(n+1). $$
Hence the probability that $K=k$ is
$$ p_{nk} = \frac{c(n,k),2^k}{2(3)\cdots(n+1)}, $$
where $c(n,k)$ are the unsigned Stirling numbers of the first kind.
3. Probability generating function
Compute
$$ \sum_{k\ge 0} p_{nk} z^k = \frac{1}{2(3)\cdots(n+1)} \sum_{k\ge 0} c(n,k) (2z)^k. $$
Using the standard identity
$$ \sum_{k\ge 0} c(n,k)x^k = x(x+1)\cdots(x+n-1), $$
with $x=2z$, we obtain
$$ \sum_{k\ge 0} p_{nk} z^k = \frac{(2z)(2z+1)\cdots(2z+n-1)}{2\cdot 3\cdots(n+1)}. $$
This is the correct generating function.
4. Moments of $K$
From the Ewens($\theta=2$) structure, we can compute factorial-moment type expressions directly.
Mean of $K$
For Ewens($\theta$),
$$ \mathbb{E}[K] = \theta H_n. $$
Hence
$$ \mathbb{E}[K] = 2H_n. $$
5. Mean of $2^K$
Compute directly from the generating function:
$$ \mathbb{E}[2^K] = \sum_k p_{nk} 2^k = \frac{(4)(5)\cdots(n+3)}{2\cdot 3\cdots(n+1)}. $$
Rewrite numerator and denominator:
$$ (4)(5)\cdots(n+3) = \frac{(n+3)!}{3!}, \quad 2\cdot 3\cdots(n+1) = \frac{(n+1)!}{1}. $$
Thus
$$ \mathbb{E}[2^K] = \frac{(n+3)!}{6 (n+1)!} = \frac{(n+3)(n+2)}{6}. $$
6. Second moment and variance of $2^K$
Similarly,
$$ \mathbb{E}[4^K] = \frac{(8)(9)\cdots(n+7)}{2\cdot 3\cdots(n+1)}. $$
Convert products:
$$ (8)(9)\cdots(n+7) = \frac{(n+7)!}{7!}, \quad 2\cdot 3\cdots(n+1) = (n+1)!. $$
So
$$ \mathbb{E}[4^K] = \frac{(n+7)!}{5040 (n+1)!} = \frac{(n+7)(n+6)(n+5)(n+4)}{5040}. $$
Therefore
$$ \mathrm{Var}(2^K) = \frac{(n+7)(n+6)(n+5)(n+4)}{5040}
- \left(\frac{(n+3)(n+2)}{6}\right)^2. $$
Final answers
Generating function
$$ \sum_{k \ge 0} p_{nk} z^k
\frac{(2z)(2z+1)\cdots(2z+n-1)}{2\cdot 3\cdots(n+1)}. $$
Mean
$$ \mathbb{E}[2^K] = \frac{(n+3)(n+2)}{6}. $$
Variance
$$ \mathrm{Var}(2^K)
\frac{(n+7)(n+6)(n+5)(n+4)}{5040}
\left(\frac{(n+3)(n+2)}{6}\right)^2. $$
All results now follow from the correct Ewens($\theta=2$) weighting induced by random perfect matchings, rather than an incorrect uniform-permutation assumption.