TAOCP 5.2.1 Exercise 7
Let $a_1 a_2 \dots a_n$ be a random permutation of ${1,2,\dots,n}$.
Section 5.2.1: Sorting by Insertion
Exercise 7. [M20] [M20] If $a_1 a_2 \ldots a_n$ is a random permutation of ${1,2,\ldots,n}$, what is the average value of $|a_1 - 1| + |a_2 - 2| + \cdots + |a_n - n|$? (This is $n$ times the average net distance traveled by a record during a sorting process.)
Verified: yes
Solve time: 14m42s
Solution
Let $a_1 a_2 \dots a_n$ be a random permutation of ${1,2,\dots,n}$. Define
$$ X = |a_1 - 1| + |a_2 - 2| + \cdots + |a_n - n|. $$
By linearity of expectation,
$$ \mathbb{E}[X] = \mathbb{E}[|a_1 - 1|] + \mathbb{E}[|a_2 - 2|] + \cdots + \mathbb{E}[|a_n - n|]. $$
Consider a single term $\mathbb{E}[|a_j - j|]$. Since $a_j$ is uniformly distributed over ${1,2,\dots,n}$,
$$ \mathbb{E}[|a_j - j|] = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{k=1}^{n} |k - j|. $$
Split the sum into two parts: $k < j$ and $k \ge j$. Then
$$ \sum_{k=1}^{n} |k - j| = \sum_{k=1}^{j-1} (j - k) + \sum_{k=j+1}^{n} (k - j). $$
The first sum is an arithmetic series:
$$ \sum_{k=1}^{j-1} (j - k) = 1 + 2 + \cdots + (j-1) = \frac{(j-1) j}{2}. $$
The second sum is
$$ \sum_{k=j+1}^{n} (k - j) = 1 + 2 + \cdots + (n-j) = \frac{(n-j)(n-j+1)}{2}. $$
Hence
$$ \mathbb{E}[|a_j - j|] = \frac{(j-1)j/2 + (n-j)(n-j+1)/2}{n} = \frac{j(j-1) + (n-j)(n-j+1)}{2n}. $$
The total expectation is
$$ \mathbb{E}[X] = \sum_{j=1}^{n} \frac{j(j-1) + (n-j)(n-j+1)}{2n} = \frac{1}{2n} \sum_{j=1}^{n} \bigl(j(j-1) + (n-j)(n-j+1)\bigr). $$
Compute the sum of the first term:
$$ \sum_{j=1}^{n} j(j-1) = \sum_{j=1}^{n} (j^2 - j) = \frac{n(n+1)(2n+1)}{6} - \frac{n(n+1)}{2} = \frac{n(n+1)(2n+1 - 3)}{6} = \frac{n(n+1)(2n-2)}{6} = \frac{n(n+1)(n-1)}{3}. $$
Compute the sum of the second term:
$$ \sum_{j=1}^{n} (n-j)(n-j+1) = \sum_{k=0}^{n-1} k(k+1), \quad \text{where } k = n-j. $$
Then
$$ \sum_{k=0}^{n-1} k(k+1) = \sum_{k=0}^{n-1} (k^2 + k) = \frac{(n-1)n(2n-1)}{6} + \frac{(n-1)n}{2} = \frac{(n-1)n(2n-1 + 3)}{6} = \frac{(n-1)n(2n+2)}{6} = \frac{(n-1)n(n+1)}{3}. $$
Adding the two sums gives
$$ \sum_{j=1}^{n} \bigl(j(j-1) + (n-j)(n-j+1)\bigr) = \frac{n(n+1)(n-1)}{3} + \frac{n(n+1)(n-1)}{3} = \frac{2 n(n+1)(n-1)}{3}. $$
Therefore
$$ \mathbb{E}[X] = \frac{1}{2n} \cdot \frac{2 n(n+1)(n-1)}{3} = \frac{(n+1)(n-1)}{3} = \frac{n^2 - 1}{3}. $$
Hence the average value of $|a_1 - 1| + \cdots + |a_n - n|$ is
$$ \boxed{\frac{n^2 - 1}{3}}. $$
This completes the proof.
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